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Corrective So Far - Market Analysis for Aug 26th, 2021

With today’s downside move, I simply cannot count a clear 5-wave structure. That leaves us with a corrective pullback. And, that begins to make the bullish case a bit stronger, and that wave 3 has not yet completed.But, before I am willing to jump into that came, I want to again highlight the IWM. If you remember what I said the other day, the 226 region is an a=c point off the recent lows in the IWM, and it is a level of utmost importance right now.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Same Parameters, Different Day

I am writing today’s update a bit earlier since I will be presenting at the MoneyShow this afternoon from 2-3. As the market has squeezed a bit higher now, based upon some other signs I am seeing, there is still a bit higher we can extend in this move off last week’s low. But, that changes nothing in our overall view, as it remains the same.We still need the next decline to provide us our guidance as to whether the market wants to extend wave 3 to 4550-4600 or if we are indeed completing a b-wave top, with a c-wave decline to come next down to the 4240-70SPX region.

by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Slowing Down - Market Analysis for Aug 24th, 2021

After the sizeable move higher through resistance yesterday, the market has taken a breather today. And, while the SPX may still try to push a bit higher before this rally runs its course, not much has really changed in my perspective.It will still take the structure of the next pullback to tell us if the market intends on extending wave 3 to 4550-4600SPX in the coming weeks, or if this is indeed a b-wave, with a c-wave decline the next move for Mr. Market. As I outlined yesterday, if the next pullback is clearly corrective, then we will prepare for the extension to 4550-4600SPX, and I will adjust my primary count accordingly.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Downside Setup Busted – For Now

Within a bear market, or even within a bigger corrective structure, when we see the type of a-b-c potential corrective set-up the market provided us into the close on Friday, 70-80% of the time you will see a downside resolution. However, when we are in a strong bull market, it is not advisable to short these types of set-ups, unless they confirm their intentions to the downside.Clearly, the market took the other side of this trade, and broke over resistance and provided us with the marginal higher high I expected if we saw such a break over resistance. And, we still may push even just a bit higher before this tops out.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Four-Letter Word Despised By Mr. Market

That four-letter word is DOWN. In fact, most of the drops we have seen throughout the year do not seem to last more than a few days. Can this time be different?Well, if wave 3 has indeed topped, and I think it has since broke below the 4373SPX support in the overnight session, then we should be taking a bit more time than just a few days to complete wave 4. I want to re-print an alert I posted late yesterday afternoon:“Bigger picture time. If wave 3 has finally concluded, then lets look at the potential path for wave 4. But, please remember, trying to nail down the exact path during a 4th wave is akin to throwing jello for distance.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

.Testing Support - Market Analysis for Aug 17th, 2021

With the break down below yesterday’s low, the market is now in a precarious posture. Whereas before there was a reasonable path towards 4550SPX, I cannot say I see a high probability path at this time to that region. Of course, it may resurrect, but for now, I am not optimistic. Moreover, keep in mind that we are expecting wave 3 of [3] to be topping out, and wave 4 to be commencing. But, we still do not have a strong indication that the upside has run its course.The reason I am writing this update a bit early is that there is a slight adjustment I need to make to the analysis I presented over the weekend, which was reiterated yesterday.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Please Prepare Yourself - Market Analysis for Aug 16th, 2021

As difficult as the market action has been since May, I want you all to prepare yourselves emotionally for what will likely be another several months of difficult trading. You see, as the market grinds its way higher to complete wave 3, the structure with which we are likely developing this wave 3 top is still overlapping and will continue to be difficult. Couple that with the impending 4th wave pullback, which are never easy to navigate, we are setting up for a difficult upcoming several months.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

SPX Closing In On The Next Key Pivot As It Breaks Out To New Highs

After testing the 4442 resistance level several times over the past few days the ES finally broke sharply through that level today giving us the initial indication that we have indeed bottomed in the wave (2) as shown per the green count on the charts. Now with that being said and as I have noted previously the action up into the highs is still not what I would consider a terribly clean pattern on the smaller timeframes so we need to continue to rely on our fibs and fib pinball framework to help give us further guidance as this pushes higher.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Markets Still Under Resistance Near The Highs

Today just before the regular session open we saw the ES spike higher and push into the 4442 resistance level that I had been watching for several days now. After touching that level we saw the ES pullback down off of that level. I am viewing this 4442 level as a fairly key upside pivot that should help determine whether the ES/SPX is ready to break directly higher in the hear of the micro wave (3) as shown on the ES chart or if we still need to see a bit deeper of a pullback into support for the wave c of (2).

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

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